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The inevitable has finally happened.
The housing bubble in the US has burst. And the sub-prime crisis that resulted
from the real estate bust in the US destroyed investor wealth worth trillions
of dollars across the world.
The bust has claimed high profile
investment banks like Bear Sterns (taken over by J P Morgan with dollops of
help from the US Federal reserve, the US equivalent of Reserve Bank of India ,
Lehman Brothers (filed for bankruptcy on September 15 leading to the global
turmoil since then) and, one of the most venerable insurers in the world, the
American International Group (taken over by the US government for about $85
billion).
Today, the US government led by
Treasury Secretary (US equivalent of India's finance minister) Henry Paulson
(himself an ex-Goldman Sachs CEO, another investment bank facing the music) is
planning to make provisions for an $800 bailout package that would buy all the
bad loans and related products sold by US commercial and investment banks.
And since most of the US companies do
business in India and with companies in India and the world over, the bailout
will help restore the global confidence in financial systems like commercial
and investment banks.
However, for the next two years the
whole world, including India, is expected to reel under the effect of the
current financial crisis considered as the worst since the Great Depression of
1929.
This is how it will affect us in India.
1. Slowdown in jobs
Companies like Lehman Brothers, Merrill
Lynch, AIG and Morgan Stanley, to name a few, have their captive research
units, brokerage arms, investment banking arms in India employing several
hundred thousand people in what is popularly known as BPOs (Business Process
Outsourcing) and KPOs (Knowledge Process Outsourcing). Lehman Brothers' Powai unit
itself employed about 2,200 people most of whom will be rendered unemployed
unless some other company buys out Lehman's India operations and keeps the
wheels running.
2. Increase in loan rates
First it was the inflation rate that
spoiled the party for Indian borrowers of home loans, personal loans and credit
card purchases. Now taking a cue from the US banks -- which today are so
wary that they are not even lending to each other for the fear that they may
not get their money back -- Indian banks too have decided to thoroughly scrutinise the
repayment capacity of Indian borrowers
As their cost of money goes up banks
will pass on this increase to their customers, ie,
borrowers like you and me, at a higher rate of interest. If banks feel that
borrowers may not return their money they are going to price it higher to cover
the risk of a few defaulting on their payments
3. Correction in real estate prices
There is some good news, though. If
experts are to be believed real estate prices in Indian towns and cities are
likely to come down by 10-15 per cent in the next few months.
The reason given is most US companies
that had bought stakes in Indian real estate companies are facing a cash
crunch. Others who had promised to invest in Indian real estate will not do so
for the simple reason that the US is no more the place where you can get
dollars easily and at a cheaper rate.
4. Increase in gold prices
Because of the financial problems in
the US global investors are losing their faith in the supremacy of the US
dollar as a store of value. As a result they are selling dollars to buy some
other currency, say the euro or the Japanese yen.
Whenever such an event happens
investors flock to that ultimate store of value called gold or the noble metal.
As the festival season starts with Navratri in India
more and more people will demand gold thereby increasing its price further.
5. More inflation
Increase in oil prices -- it
jumped a whopping $30 a barrel in intra-day trade today before settling at
$108-109 to a barrel -- and weakening of the Indian rupee against the
dollar will act as a double whammy for Indians.
Crude prices have a multiplier effect.
As most goods transported in India use some or the other form of energy it
increases the cost of transportation and hence an increase in the price of
vegetables, pulses etc.
6. Speed breaker ahead
Future Group Chairman Kishore Biyani had, way
back in 2007, said that 2009 will be a crucial year for the world economy as a
whole and particularly India. How very prophetic his words sound today.
With the US economy firmly in the grip
of a slowdown owing to the housing price collapse and the subsequent sub-prime
drama, this slowdown is fast snowballing across global boundaries and more so
India as we depend a lot on the US for the money they bring in.
7. Rollercoaster ride
Be prepared to ride the ups and downs
of the global financial markets as India is no more an isolated island. India
is likely to follow whatever happens in the US, European or Asian stock
markets.
A case in point is how the Sensex closely
traced the ups and downs of the Dow Jones and Nasdaq in the
previous week.
The same is true of the prices of oil,
gold, aluminium, copper
steel and any other commodity. Gone are the days when markets defied Newton and
gravity. Nobody can expect the markets to move only in one direction.
If you are a trader in such a market,
then not even God can save you.
